The Portuguese forests of kelp (e-book, portuguese only)
Tropicalization of fish assemblages at temperate biogeographic transition zones.
Biogeographic transition zones in marine temperate systems are often hotspots of biodiversity with high levels of resilience to short-term climate shifts due to naturally occurring cyclic oscillations of oceanographic conditions. However, these environments are likely vulnerable to a steady warming scenario when cyclical conditions are disrupted. In this paper we evaluate how changes in local oceanography affect the structure of rocky reef fish assemblages over a period of 50 yr in a biogeographic transition zone. Using a 12 yr time series of rocky reef fish assemblage structure, we identified the set of oceanographic variables that most influenced assemblage dynamics. Descriptive and predictive models (multivariate regression trees) were compared to observed data using the area under the curve. Winter northward wind stress and sea surface temperature (SST) were the most important drivers of change in assemblage structure.